Lions and Bears, oh my
Written by Rex Jaybels   
Wednesday, 23 December 2009 10:47

chicago_bears_and_lions

On his NFC North Blog on ESPN today, Kevin Seifert is asked the question, "Who will reach the playoffs first, the Detroit Lions or the Chicago Bears?" At first you might scoff at the question, but in reality only three wins separate these two teams, and if like me you believe that the Lions will beat the Bears in the final week of the season, then the question becomes even more juicy.

Seifert has this to say in response to DJ from Chicago,

"...when you amble over to ESPN.com's Week 16 Power Rankings, you see only five spots separate Chicago (25) and the Lions (30). You could make an argument that the Bears' talent base has shrunk dramatically in recent years, requiring an overhaul similar to what the Lions are undertaking. And it's only fair to point out the Lions have more firepower in the 2010 draft -- namely, their choices in the first and second rounds -- to continue filling those holes.

The Lions could have two of the top 35 picks in the draft. Barring a trade, the Bears won't pick until the beginning of the third round, probably around No. 70 overall."

Ok, so round one goes to the Lions. What about position by position?

Quarterback: The Lions have rookie Matt Stafford, and there is no way to predict what kind of QB he may be going forward. He's had a rough season and has suffered some injuries, but through all of that he is still less mistake prone than Jay Cutler has been in 2009. I'd like to believe that Cutler has the higher ceiling, and for now I'll give the Bears the edge in the QB battle, though I'm not completely comfortable with it.

2009 Season Comparison
Player Team GP COMP ATT COMP% YDS AVG TDS PA300 INT
Jay Cutler CHI 14 294 484 60.7 3117 6.4 19 3 25
Matt Stafford DET 10 201 377 53.3 2267 6.0 13 1 20

Running Backs: Detroit in 2009 is the 24th ranked rushing team in the NFL. The Bears sit at 29th. Both Matt Forte and Kevin Smith are having similar seasons, leading one to believe that the offensive lines of these two teams are playing eerily similar, and eerily crappy. Push.

2009 Season Comparison
Player Team GP CAR YDS AVG TDS RU100 REC YDS AVG TDS
Matt Forte CHI 14 221 754 3.4 4 1 53 455 8.6 0
Kevin Smith DET 13 217 747 3.4 4 1 41 415 10.1 1

Wide Receivers: The Lions in just one player have the more talent than the Bears, however, the Bears have three players with over 50 catches on the season. Detroit has only two with over 40 and one of them is running back Kevin Smith. Not being an huge follower of all that goes on in Detroit, I would have to assume that they will be looking for help on the O-line and at receiver in the upcoming draft, though defense will likely trump both. Calvin Johnson alone gives this team an edge, but a slim one.

Offensive Line: Yes that has been a fitting title for both of these teams. There won't be much in the draft for the Lions with their likely top five pick, but Detroit has some young players on their line, which is more than can be said for the Bears. The Bears line is aging and bad and with little help in site this could be and probably will be an issue for the Bears in 2010. The same can be said for the Lions I suppose. Push.

Defense: I'm just going to do the defense as a whole, because this is way too much time to spend on the Lions or the Bears. Detroit's defense sucks, period. They are last in the league in yards allowed, and they give up 31.2 points per game. The pass defense has been non-existent as they allow just under 270 yards per game through the air. There are many holes to fill on this side of the ball, and I'm not sure how long it will take to do it. The defensive line and secondary are a work in progress right now.

For Chicago the defense has been nearly as brutal, though you never know how they are going to be gashed. The Bears rank 25th in run defense and somehow just seventh in pass defense, though you'd never know it from watching them. It should be noted that the Bears are 25th in rushing attempts against, which may shed some light on that passing stat. Teams simply run the ball down their throat once they are ahead on the scoreboard. The defensive line and secondary are a work in progress right now.

I never thought this would be such an intriguing question, but it is. I have to believe the Bears are closer to the playoffs than the Lions are, based solely on the amount of holes the Lions need to fill on defense. There is simply nothing there right now. The Bears, though bad on defense, have a piece or two to work with, mainly at the LB position.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears need to fix their O-line, as do the Lions. They both need some talent at WR and they both need their young QB's to improve their play. I think on offense the Bears have a slight advantage going forward.

The Lions have more options in the draft in 2010, but that guarantees nothing and neither of these management teams have shown competency in the free agent market over the years. I think the reality is that neither of these teams is close to the playoffs, at least for the foreseeable future, but maybe you feel otherwise.

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